Negative temperature anomaly

Community and Forum → Insects biology and faunistics → Negative temperature anomaly

ИНО, 29.09.2017 21:40

Every year, the neighboring topic becomes less relevant. The peak of global warming, which occurred at the end of the zero - beginning of the tenth years of this century, has passed, and despite the near-scientific fabrications of Western populists, a global cooling is increasingly felt, coming in accordance with the Milankovich cycles. Abnormal heat is becoming less frequent and abnormal cold is becoming more frequent. Therefore, I decided to create a new theme about the weather, with a name that is more appropriate to current realities. And the most appropriate moment: this morning we had the first frost. At noon, the air temperature did not exceed +11 degrees, which, combined with a strong wind, created weather in Nome that is more typical for November than for September. It has been holding for almost a week, and promises to last for a long time. Another anomaly of this autumn is the strongest drought for this time of year. The trend towards a gradual decrease in precipitation in the first half of autumn in Donetsk has been observed for a long time. So the last time in September mushrooms gave birth already in 2013. Last year, for the first time in my pyamyat, there were extensive autumn steppe fires. In the current one, it's even drier and there are even more fires. Aridization is a natural consequence of cold weather: the lower the temperature, the less water enters the atmosphere. But Western experts in obolvanivaniyu continue to hang us noodles on our ears about that. that the ocean is heating up (forgetting to specify that only locally), glaciers are melting (forgetting to mention that in other places, on the contrary, they are growing) and by mysterious sorceries to suck out of your finger a certain average temperature in the air hospital on Earth, which allegedly increased by as much as a degree. For what purpose this performance is being played out is a big question. But clearly not for good.

Comments

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29.09.2017 22:48, Hierophis

Yes ushsh )) Well, as usual, the new topic is okodemika - and everywhere in it are unscientific statements. Ah okay still okodemik, but Crow the have us like would for science)

Okodemik, based on a light radiation freeze, built a theory that as usual "everyone lies", a "global conspiracy", but for some reason he did not take into account that September this season turned out to be with Tan +3 +5 S, as well as the fact that this September Tmkax records were recorded for many years of observations on many MS.
The current situation is absolutely normal for the end of September, as evidenced by half a century of Cumin statistics, where the last 4-5 days of September have negative lows, up to-5C and below, and the closer the region is to the east, the Cumin is lower.

Crow is also still, already how much on spec. resources this is said, there is no connection between the "prolonged spring" and subsequent temperatures, especially as early as autumn)) If the spring was cold for some reason, this does not mean that autumn should be warm - we are talking about the so-called "compensation" when allegedly for a very cold/warm spring there will be a warm / cold autumn, summer or something else in the same region)

Likes: 1

30.09.2017 8:50, alex017

I always didn't understand the urge to jump on someone and bite them. Pressure with authorities and so on.
I have repeatedly written my observations here.
Once upon a time in 93m as a child at an already conscious age, I started climbing around the local area: forests and swamps.
These observations are in my head.
Initially, we had large boltzes and lakes everywhere.
I even remember from a very long childhood, on trips to the Colorado potato beetle, when my grandmother collected the beetle, and I crawled through swamps and puddles nearby and always wet my feet, for which I received. Ie, there was a lot of water, so there were also rains, big and a lot. However, it was also warm. In such weather as this summer, I would not have been allowed out of the house due to poor health.
Later, it became increasingly difficult for me to find reservoirs for fishing, catching fry and even daphnia.
This trend has resulted in the complete drying up of most shallow reservoirs.
This trend resulted in the fact that I jumped over one of the rivers with a running start, which would have been completely unrealistic to do in the 93rd year under any circumstances, even taking into account the children's unreasonableness.
That is, there was some dry and warm period.
Then, a few years earlier, summer suddenly ended at the end of July, namely, on the 25th-26th. Then-rain and cold weather.
Then the summer ended on June 30, so much so that I could not go out on vacation every day to get bread because of the rains. At the same time, it was a beautiful spring.
Last year, the summer was incredibly wonderful and even beautiful. Warm and dry. Autumn lasted 1 month exactly, at the very beginning, in the first days of October, it got colder to sub-zero temperatures and there were no thaws, winter began with leaves frozen to the trees.
This year turned out to be a very cold spring and summer, the warming came in August only very briefly. Now a warm October is expected, i.e. +5...+10.
At the same time, all small reservoirs and puddles are filled with water!
Perhaps some periodism in nature. Recurring climate changes

Likes: 1

30.09.2017 19:22, Hierophis

mikee, examples would certainly not hurt here) Oh, well. Let it be so, let's say.
But what is the mechanism of such compensation?
What is "warm spring"? This is the predominance of a certain warm air mass.
Basically, assuming that the sum of the differences is)) If the temperature potential of the entire Earth is unchanged, then we can assume that if somewhere it is NOW a warm spring, then somewhere else it is NOW cold.
But this is NOW - at this point in time of observations.

And in summer, or in autumn, the configuration of air mass fields changes, why, if in spring there was a warm VM, then in summer it should also be cold? )
The question is roughly similar - why, if the first roll of dice has an amount equal to, say, 7, then the second one must necessarily have a larger amount, and not a smaller one? I mean, the shifts of VM fields are stochastic, they are of course pseudorandom, but nevertheless this does not prevent the weather from escaping the advanced luminaries of meteorological science, who still cannot create a reliable model even for medium-term (up to a month) forecasts, I'm not talking about long-term ones)
If everything was as simple as you say, then the models would have worked long ago on this compensation principle

30.09.2017 22:01, Guest

The next topic becomes irrelevant because it was made a mess.

I had a feeling that winter began to come later by about a month almost, but last winter was a cold winter for all 3 months. And in the spring, on April 19 in the Kherson region in the morning there was only 2 degrees of heat, wet snow fell. So, it really looks like a negative anomaly.

However, 2015 and the winter of 2016 are out of the picture. The whole of September 2015 was dry and hot. The whole autumn was warm. And December was at least as warm as December 2010-2011. On December 21-28, the temperature in the town of N. Kakhovka, Kherson region, reached 13-14 degrees Celsius. On December 28, I saw a butterfly in the city (some kind of white squirrel). And already on December 30 it was-10 gr. and snow. February 2016 also surprised me. Already in the middle of the month, the temperature rose to 15 -16 gr., wintering moths flew out. And in early March, thistles flew. Thistles!!! Early March!!!

Likes: 1

06.10.2017 23:34, KM2200

I did a little research today. I present it to you.

1. Materials and Methods
This is about where to get data. The weather archive for the former USSR countries can
even be downloaded on the website of the Moscow Hydrometeorological Center, but they ask you to register there, and you don't know what they will ask for later.
But in America, it is downloaded without problems, and data from all over the world:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-...gy-network-ghcn
True, there are only monthly averages, but it is quite enough to study the climate.

2. Results
So, after downloading the data, I plotted the average monthly temperature in the city of Kiev,
averaged over an interval of 12 months (so-called. moving average - to eliminate annual fluctuations).
For those who don't like Kiev, St. Petersburg and Arkhangelsk are also drawn (I hope everyone understands where the city is).
As you can see, this value fluctuates quite strongly.

Now pay attention. The black curves represent the temperature averaged once again over an 11-year interval.
(I took 11 because it's the period of solar activity, but that's not important).

Take a close look at the plot from 1980 to the present day.

3. Conclusions
Now I even think that perhaps this winter will be colder than usual
(according to the schedule, we are going to some local minimum, although of course there is no comparison with the winter of 1941/42).
But soon the curve will go up, and there will come such a summer that no one will find it enough.

Pictures:
image: fig1. png

fig1.png — (169.47к)

Likes: 2

07.10.2017 9:49, Hierophis

The research is excellent!
About the "cursed omeriga"- just funny))
I saw data from nature reserves in the Russian Federation - the same situation, in any case, State Department agents sat down in the local weather stations )))
The data is still available on the site www.thermo.karelia.ru

The fact that the climate has clearly changed in a warm direction since the 80s in certain areas of the Earth is a fact, the only question is whether it has warmed everywhere, exactly all over the Earth, and in the reasons - whether it is exactly from the fact that "people tried" or all this is natural processes.
If you look at the charts, the upward trend is visible from the very beginning, just from the 80s it became more dynamic, but in fact, a more dynamic rise is noticeable even from the 50s.
All this is more like entering a new climate optimum of the Roman type, which lasted only a few centuries and after it there was a recession and famine and disease and devastation all over the Earth. So we should be happy that we are living in this time

Until the 20th century, the world, and especially the RI, lived in klim conditions. pessimism with constant crop failures, frosts in the summer, and even local "ice ages".

As for the conclusions, why shouldn't this decline already be considered borderline?

Then this winter, on the contrary, can be warm.
By the way, these graphs sometimes show the correspondence of the "compensation theory" only with a large several - year scale - after cold years, warm ones come and vice versa, but not always, a good example is the cold snap in the 40s, in some places it seems to have warmed sharply, and in Kiev for a long time there were no norms. heat. The trouble is that it is still impossible to predict when the next "compensation" will be, and when it will not be.

07.10.2017 14:54, KM2200

Given that America is the main publicist of global warming

I don't know why you think so. On the contrary, the United States is almost the only country that has not ratified the convention on the control of CO2 emissions. So it is logical for them to promote the global cooling

H. Z. what they corrected there.

Not possible. The source is not H. Z. what, but quite scientific and official. But I still conducted a random check on alternative sources. It's all right.

P.S. What is the "clinical death" in Kiev on the site between 1840 and 1860?

It's simple, there is no data from 1845 to 1854. Yes, in a good way, it would be necessary to interrupt the curves, but this section is still not important to us. By the way, I was wondering who made the measurements from 1812 to 1845, but I didn't find it. Since 1854, observations began at the Kiev University.

UPD. About Western Europe. Oddly enough, it's not easy to find a weather station with continuous observations in the 20th century. But there are some. I watched Berlin, Vienna, Utrecht-the picture is almost the same. I can post it if you want.

This post was edited by KM2200-07.10.2017 18: 53

07.10.2017 15:15, KM2200

The fact that the climate has clearly changed in a warm direction since the 80s in certain areas of the Earth is a fact, the only question is whether it has warmed everywhere, exactly all over the Earth, and in the reasons - whether it is exactly from the fact that "people tried" or all this is natural processes.
If you look at the charts, the upward trend is visible from the very beginning, just from the 80s it became more dynamic, but in fact, a more dynamic rise is noticeable even from the 50s.

All right. Although we can say that the industry did not appear in 1980, it could have had some effect even in the 19th century. But there can also be natural processes, even on a cosmic scale (solar activity, tilt of the earth's axis, etc.).

08.10.2017 1:00, KM2200

But the Europeans themselves (the part of them that has not yet lost the ability to think and observe) are somehow sure that the opposite is true. Obviously, the record-breaking negative anomalies that have become more frequent in recent years are an invention of Kremlin propaganda. It doesn't matter that English farmers have to dig out sheep from under the snow in the spring (which they didn't really have in winter before), French winegrowers have to scare away the frost with smoke, and Moldovans have to cut down gardens broken by snowfall, the main thing is that the graphs on super-official sites grow, so everything is in a bundle. Don't believe your eyes, believe my numbers.

Is this some kind of conspiracy theory? Where is the fake in the primary data (collusion of weather forecasters around the world?) or in the American database (but there is also an uncorrected version by the way)?

08.10.2017 19:06, ИНО

You didn't learn much about that site. There are also monthly averages for a number of years.
And for daily payments, there is another good source. Donetsk, however, is no longer found there, but you can take Rostov and Raisins and, averaging, get something similar to the truth. Then look at the dynamics of non-average temperature in the hospital, such more interesting from a biological point of view indicators as the number of days with positive and negative anomalies, the sum of temperatures, the duration of phenological summer, etc. But this requires a lot of free time, I don't have it right now.

Today, the anomaly is still positive, the temperature is +20 at its peak, but the cloud cover that quickly covered the sky and the strongest wind multiplied its entomological benefit by zero. And on the windward coast of the Donetsk Sea, it was generally a fierce winter. And a small but noticeable rain finally fell, at night. And dew, and fog. But the wind instantly dried up everything without a trace.

Pictures: