Positive temperature anomaly

Community and Forum → Insects biology and faunistics → Positive temperature anomaly

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01.12.2011 22:51, Hierophis

Yes, there are anomalies on the map, but this map can be considered in principle as a slightly more confident option than the forecast of the type "whether it rains or snows, whether it will be, or not". Although usually for the first two months there the forecast is exactly about 70/30 yes/no.

And the distribution of positive anomalies should be taken into account in the context of a specific area - if the norm is given for the Crimea with a positive anomaly of the Severn, it is almost 100% likely that in the Crimea, too, T will be higher than normal due to the peculiarities of this area.

So far, if we take more short-term sources, the forecast for warming is not only preserved, but also strengthened, from the coming Sunday to Monday in the south of Ukraine, it is possible to reach +17C(in the Crimea).
Then it gets a little colder in the middle of the week, and by the next weekend a similar warming is expected again and in 5 days another one, in general, the Atlantic zhzhot

07.12.2011 21:09, Hierophis

You can already see an approximate view of the Atlantic cyclone, which may be provided ... it's already 7! days of warm weather in a row, from the 13th to the 19th, with temperature maxima in the south of Ukraine +12 +17C.
The cyclone can have a diameter of up to 7,000 km, have a "storm eye"(approx. 1000 km), can raise the tropical air boundary 5000 km higher than usual in this season(this time it is possible to flood VM from the more southern periphery of Africa), will have a fairly low pressure in the center, it will have a lot of moisture(thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of England), in the center there will be strong winds(in the west of England), in the south of Ukraine - moderate south wind.
At the same time, in the south of Ukraine, it will be possible, at least for the first few days, dry and clear, as precipitation will go much further north.

Interseno to assume that it will be, if it comes true, I assume that the vegetation of perennials in the steppe may begin, maybe even some single specimens of spring ephemeroids will appear, perhaps budding on some shrubs, the appearance of early spring dung beetles, strong winter years and possibly wintering scoops, perhaps even the appearance of snakes, Crimean and green lizards.

However, it is important to note that so far this cyclone is not even in the bud, but the trends seem to be very stable

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11.12.2011 21:36, Hierophis

Well, everything is coming true, the expected cyclone will start today around midnight, and by morning it will already gain strength, although there are small adjustments - according to the new calculations of the am. models cyclogenesis will be carried out in two stages, the first cyclone today, the second on Wednesday, on the one hand, it will reduce the temperature maxima in Ukraine, on the other hand, it may reduce the catastrophic consequences for England, Greenland, France, Sweden, Germany and other countries (ray two is smaller than one big). Wind strength is expected to exceed 100 km / h, the main impact will be on Tuesday in the area of Scotland, on Friday a wind of over 110 km/h is possible in all the British Isles and neighboring coasts. At the same time, there will be heavy rains and thunderstorms.

The highest temperatures in Ukraine are on Wednesday and Thursday, again on Saturday and Sunday. At the same time, we do not seem to have any "kakaklizmovs", it may not rain in the south of Ukraine, the wind will not be very strong, but it may be cloudy , alas..

Something already became sad, people also live there, even though they are capitalists-exploiters, and even though they are used to this, but everything is lazy.. But in general, nothing will happen to them, it happened more than once, they are already used to it, they will sit out.

14.12.2011 0:25, Hierophis

Well, so far there is such data - after the 20th of the day, there will almost definitely be a strong collapse of the cold in Ukraine and in general in the east. Europe in the tail of the last atl. cyclone, the establishment of meridional processes - that is, the lowering of cold from north to south, etc., all this should be accompanied by snowfall, most likely very strong and not one day. But in the south of Ukraine, as usual, an icy rain is shining, but then it is also possible that snow will fall on top.

But after the 26th, a new series of Atlantic cyclones is planned, and if there is one, then in Ukraine the snow will most likely melt under rain and fog by the end of the month, well, unless it remains in the east, as usually happens in such situations.

Do you really want snow?

As for me, it's better to have it warm than snow and frost on NG)

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14.12.2011 18:48, Hierophis

Well, the fact that at this time of year in Voronezh there is an opportunity to find something under a stump, this is certainly anomalous, but in order for large-scale anomalies to appear in wildlife, including in the behavior of insects, you probably need to have more than +10C around the clock for 5 days... And if there were severe frosts before that, then the deadline should be even longer.

We had such an episode in January - after the December frosts, warming began at the end of December, and for about 18 days the temperature was kept within +5 +10 around the clock, and at the end of it all, dung beetles, caterpillars of some butterflies, small beetles of all kinds, bedbugs began to climb out, and then two days later it snowed again.

PS
Just looked at the updated data - there is a prospect that there will be no cold snap after the 20th!!! Wow, how much power is there gathered to drive such cyclones without a break !!!!!! There will definitely be no winter at this rate

This post was edited by Hierophis - 12/14/2011 19: 22

16.12.2011 17:59, Hierophis

And we are constantly overcast and very wet, the weather is almost constant, as a result, such anomalies are crazy and there is no activity, not even flies are visible. Well, okay, but there are no frosts.
In the meantime, everything goes to the fact that after the 26th, the Atlantic will raise another gift - another series of cyclones with an even more powerful initiative - up to 930mb(wind up to 65m/s) pressure in the center, and we will raise tropical air to the latitude of Murmansk

If we have any snow between 24 and 26 then it will melt just as quickly in theory )
And there already "our time" will go - the day will be added, if Santa Claus does not succeed in expanding the snow bridgeheads to the west, then after January 20, you can definitely forget about winter

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18.12.2011 23:02, Hierophis

Well, I still think that there will be some frosts, so in nature, in theory, the diapause is not in danger, and we have already suffered in November.
Personally, according to my observations - always positive, the warmer the winter - the more erect-winged, and especially grasshoppers, but also locusts, too.
Although, the past winters were not so much abnormally cold as contrasting - among the frosts, it became sharply warmer, the snow melted, then frost on the bare ground, freezing rain-all this probably does not have a very favorable effect on the masonry.

But on the balcony, I did not get much at all, either everything freezes completely, or there seems to be no diapause, or even hatching occurs in the middle of winter!

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23.12.2011 18:28, Hierophis

Yeah, but why get drunk, it's not grief

Here it may be possible to open the season from Tuesday next, warming is planned from Monday to Friday, but the mark of +10C is unlikely to be reached with this warming, and even more so it will be overcome.
Also, the warming is specific - the heat will be in the north, in the region of St. Petersburg, in the center of the ETR, and in Ukraine it will be generally colder than in more northern latitudes!
Along the way, Turkey and the Caucasus will not feel this warming at all, there will be two-digit disadvantages.
The snow that has fallen now in the west and north of Ukraine is likely to melt during this warming, but whether it will fall again before NG is unclear.
This weekend in the south of Ukraine there will be frosts on bare ground, including those that persist during the day, this is bad

, at a distance from the sea Cumin is up to-14C, in the Crimea on the South Coast it can be up to -5. It's lousy, because of these disgusting frosts, and it won't warm up so much and there will be a lot of livestock.

Fans of frosts on NG-you can rejoice, exactly on New Year's eve there will most likely be frosts almost everywhere, in the vicinity of St. Petersburg, so in general the frost is under -20, in Ukraine it is milder, but it is also not good enough, especially considering that the snow may melt, but the new one will not fall.

For the south of Ukraine, all this business should end strong, and most importantly "normal", that is, with the arrival of heat from the south to the north, warming from January 2 - another chance to open the season

Meanwhile, the State Department

continues to bend the line about the fact that there will be no winter ))) And not just will not be, and will not be capital, straight tin some))))

Link to the source
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/

Pictures:

euT2mMon1221dec.gif — (30.09к)

23.12.2011 23:15, Hierophis

Wave Storm, well, seriously, everything can be, we usually have winter at the end of January, there is a fairly high frequency of cold snaps according to statistics, snow falls, then it is clear and quiet and frosty-just like in real winter, like in books

But for us, such a winter is quite disastrous for livestock, for example, in that cold and snowy winter that was 2 years ago, the number of animals decreased quite significantly! And it was bad for everyone, and insects and hares/foxes of all kinds, and birds. There was a very strong nast, I remember running almost skipping along it, they said that along the roads there were many corpses of birds, they had nothing to eat and they went out on the tracks, during that winter we had several times snow melted and fell again, there were frosts on the bare ground, and that hour on top of promorlzhennoy After all, snow is not normal and harmful for animals, there were freezing rains, and all this has a very bad effect on nature. We do not have such a winter as to the north - so that the snow fell at the beginning, and came down only in the spring, so here ka kpo I'm so much better without cold weather and snow than with such consequences.

By the way, on the southern side of the Dnieper, where the Aleshkinsky sands are, there is generally a unique place in the climatic sense, thanks to this, empuzas, jerboa live there, a lot of orchids grow. Dnipro in combination with the coast of the World Cup and the estuary creates a microclimate no worse than the Crimean one on the South Coast!

23.12.2011 23:55, Hierophis

Yes, great weather will be there in April and May!

There is almost no bad weather there, we didn't get out of there this year either - so our great ta broad Dnipro

together with the estuary and the Southern Bug slowed down such fronts-somewhere across the river there is a terrible thunderstorm, rain, hail, the wind blows everything down, and in the desert silence, the sun is shining the heat, and you walk, look at these towering towers of cumulus clouds on the horizon, and somehow you feel uneasy-it's scary that it will cover you, but the Dnieper does not let them in! In general, it is very difficult to catch bad weather there, I remember - as soon as you can see that the HF will pass - rain is planned and cloudy-then you definitely need to go to the desert, you will not lose, it will be clear and warm, beautiful lakes, cold water springs, ferns, horsetails... and so it was!

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