Positive temperature anomaly

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13.02.2012 23:13, Hierophis

Well, today there was dubak in the unheated rooms in the north, and it will be for a long time to come. And personally, almost all our rooms were unheated, not counting the "rooms", that is, all the large auditoriums were not heated!

And SibAC will stand here in the east until its transformation into a "summer mode", here the point is that the synoptic situation that is observed in the beginning of February usually" freezes", since the Atlantic does not have the former enthusiasm to influence something. And in such a configuration as it is now, the prospects are not very good - southern cyclones and cyclones diving from Scandinavia, constant snowfalls, cold weather returns, including possibly again "nuclear" invasions in early March.
But nevertheless, spring has already begun, and now transients will prevail, now the southern cyclone is going to cover us with snow up to the very nihAch, but with positive Temperatures in the south, then there will be cold weather returns, on Thursday there will be positive temperatures again, on the weekend it will be cold, on Monday it will be warm, in general it will be sausage nepodecki...

And although in principle it is already considered a type of "spring", but there is little hope for an early calm spring with primroses, the awakening of animals.
Although, from the experience of the last long spring, I will say that at least then there was a good harvest of apricots and peaches, because the flowering was late, and in general, with a strong raskolbasa in March - in April, the tropical air mass behaves much more aggressively - if it comes for a long time

And Sibets can still show itself in the summer, as in 2010, if it survives and transforms normally, then again under +40C it will tighten under August

14.02.2012 21:20, Hierophis

Well, yes, this is such a slang name-sibets, well, it's clear why

In general, the Siberian anticyclone seems to be the largest weather formation over land, and affects the weather not only in Eurasia, but also in the eastern periphery sometimes.

In summer, instead of it, sometimes an Asian depression forms, and sometimes an anticyclone persists, warms up, and begins to squirt and dry up everything that is under it, temperatures in Siberia, even close to the north, can reach up to +35C +40C. Shifting to Europe in summer, Sibets contributes to droughts, dry winds, and abnormally hot weather. In general, neither in winter nor in summer, do not expect good from him ))))

Although.. in the south of Ukraine in the summer, an anticyclone that pushes from the east or north provokes powerful thunderstorm activity, and this is interseno, but again-all sorts of disasters.. not everyone likes

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19.02.2012 23:53, Hierophis

It so happened that when it was snowing for everyone, it was somewhere at the end of January, it was raining here, heavy and very long-in fact, the norm for the month fell in two days. That was our snow

And then frosts hit, snow was light, even they say in Nikolaev there was snow in the northern regions, but in the south very little snow fell, during all the frosts it was approx. 5 cm of snow maximum, the steppe from the window looked as if thawed.

But this is not the case in the entire south of Ukraine - a lot of snow has fallen in the Crimea, in the southern east too, in the west too. Only the south of Mykolaiv and Kherson regions was so noted.

And now, the frosts are essentially over.. and the day before yesterday we were covered with snow, up to 30 cm filled!

26.02.2012 23:07, Hierophis

Yes, the old decrepit crone is still waving her icicles at full speed!!! Under March 8, we want to arrange Sibiria!
Starting tomorrow, Ukraine is once again at the mercy of winter, in the south mostly at night, and in other regions during the day. And by March 8, there are different options, there are warm ones, and there are such options-under -20 for sowing. in the east.

And we have completely lost the snow today! In principle, there are no special snowfalls here, although there are options for "adding snow", but again under 30 cm in the south-hardly, but it can be more southerly

True, now digital systems are all in disagreement about further scenarios, personally, I intuitively assume that from March 3, including on holidays, it will be warm! This is not a personal preference, but a guess

28.02.2012 18:58, Hierophis

Cool meteorologists you have!
For such a long time now it is risky to make something up, and the sun is already "running out", in mid-March, well, very unlikely -15, at night of course, during the day in general, such ekstrmy are unrealistic)))
So the promised -15 in the Stavropol Territory is not even a fact!

According to the latest model data, at least until March 8, no special troubles are visible in the south of Ukraine, including in the Stavropol Territory! At night, temperatures not lower than-5C will prevail, during the day near-zero and plus temperatures will prevail. Regular precipitation and overcast weather. But in the south of Ukraine-a fresh wind.
Typical situation for the first decade of March

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02.03.2012 17:59, Hierophis

I also go fishing

I really like fishing! But I prefer quiet fishing, with waiting, crucian carp, carp, bream, well, only on a fishing rod and wild reservoirs

Now our rivers are covered with thick ice, and lovers of fishing from the ice go to catch, but there is nothing special-gobies. But I'm not a big fan of this kind of fishing, and it's dangerous to catch from the ice here - the river is still about 2 km wide and 200 m deep, it's not even a river anymore - the ice floe will break off and take the fisherman to the sea, so river fishing will smoothly turn into sea fishing ))))) And on small rivers, nothing is caught yet.

And the heat will obviously be from the 9th-10th of the day, but before that you will have to survive perhaps a couple more days under-20C

Winter takes its revenge for the warmth in the beginning. Well, nothing, next time it will be counted, for each spoiled day of spring - it will have to give up a week

03.03.2012 18:10, Hierophis

amara, in principle, there is every reason to expect a similar profile in the summer.
But so far, summer is very far away, so I would like to endure the current cold weather. But in the meantime, everything is not very good - the prospects open up until the end of March more and more winter

In principle, there is nothing unusual in what happened this winter, if we take the history of observations, but it can not be called an ordinary event, there was a very strong invasion of a large volume of cold air from the eastern part of Siberia. The Siberian anticyclone regularly expands its influence on Europe, but to have it happen like this is a VERY rare event, an analogue can be given only in 1929. Very similar processes are the spreading of the SibAC and the rolling out of a series of supermassive cold cores from northern Siberia, up to 3000 km in diameter.
It was even more disastrous then. Here is a map from the archive for February 9, this is the altitude temperature, and given the cooling, you can safely add-10C to it(minimum, or even -15?), as a result, you can estimate T in the core...

user posted image

And then there were no global warming events like that.

It should also be noted that winter this year has essentially lost its legal terms throughout Europe, and began only in mid-January.
For example, what was the overall winter in Moscow this season, warm, unfashionable, or normal? Normal!!! Because when you add up the sharp-positive and sharp-negative anomalies, you get zero. And so it is almost all over Europe.

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03.03.2012 20:24, Hierophis

Romikdv, yes, I somehow also wasn't interested in what was the surface cooling, here is one of the best free archives of surface temperature.
http://thermo.karelia.ru/weather/w_history.php
There are data for different periods for different observation points.
But unfortunately, not everywhere there is 1929, I found for Minsk and Kiev, the minimum there is only approx. - 33C
. It is possible that the cooling profile was shifted from the center of the core, or maybe a warm wind could blow from the west in this region, and because of this, the cooling was weak.
For Kiev in such conditions, in theory, it could well be I-40S.

It turns out that it is not much lower than the current temperatures. Hmm.. interesting...

http://thermo.karelia.ru/weather/w_history...nth=2&year=1929
http://thermo.karelia.ru/weather/w_history...nth=2&year=1929

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08.03.2012 22:32, Hierophis

Now, of course, it was not the most pleasant beginning of March, on March 8-everywhere in Ukraine frosts and a lot of snow is falling.

But in fact, it turns out that now is far from the worst option that could have been, and what could have been, or rather what was once, you can look here!

http://thermo.karelia.ru/weather/w_history...nth=3&year=1963

http://thermo.karelia.ru/weather/w_history...nth=3&year=1964

These two links are to the archive of temperatures in Kharkiv in March 1963 and ' 64.
In 1963, the whole of March was very cold, but at the end of March it turned out to be a cold takeaway, in the 20s up to-20C! There were two-digit drawbacks in both Crimea and Odessa.

And in 1964 on March 8 in Kharkov was.. -32C! And there are also two-digit frosts all over Ukraine.

Interestingly, the processes that caused such hellish cold in these years were absolutely and radically different. The winter in these years was also very cold.
And in the neighboring years, everything was more or less normal.

And it is not a fact that this will not happen again, global warming and cooling have nothing to do with it, it all depends on what combination of existing processes will develop, and ultimately, "how the wind blows".

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