Positive temperature anomaly

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24.12.2011 0:22, Hierophis

No, well, if the temperature is not good, then of course you can freeze, and there is nothing much to do there, if the Tsr is not higher than +15C and a clear south wind - the sea is cold in the spring, as a result it is very uncomfortable, especially at night, and there are practically no animals, you just need to monitor the weather before the trip, so there were no unpleasant moments. If necessary, I can look at it shortly before a specific date, but now no modeling system and no experience will help me find out exactly what exactly will happen for such a period.

PS
Now I looked at the data for this region - at the end of April it was very hot in the desert-Tsr was +15-17C, Tmax +25, Cumin +12,
but in early May it was very cold, the total Tanomaln. it was -6C, Tmax +13 Cumin +1 from 2 to 9 May, in this weather I would not just freeze - I would turn into an ice cube, this is some kind of Arctic)))

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07.01.2012 21:33, Hierophis

Damn Clinton, and most importantly-they give this invasion, in principle, in the mid-climate time frame for such processes-that is, like, a realistic forecast.
This cold will be very difficult to push out of here later - the Atlantic is weakening, and the sun has not yet come into effect, all February and half of March will be a nightmare of Arctic cold, brrrr.
Moreover, judging by the analysis, the "event" will be supported by serious non-security forces - the Siberian AD will come out from the north, from the west - a hybrid of Scandinavian and Azorean - in general, it will be squeezed in a vise and start freezing us all )))

The main thing is at least snow so that it was first and then this permafrost, and it is better that it does not exist at all!!!!!!!!

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16.01.2012 13:54, Hierophis

Yes bad prospects

The Atlantic cyclone predicted for the 18th day is already in orbit

, so to speak , but on the 18th it will come out to" combat positions " (although not one, but a range of them), it seems much weaker than it was predicted on January 10, and the Siberian anticyclone at this time will be stronger than ever

In general, everything will be decided on the 18th of the day, of course, it will not be possible to push the cold-breathing SIBAC beyond the Urals from the first time, but most likely from 20 to 24 it will get much warmer in Ukraine! But this will be accompanied, especially at the beginning, by snow, blizzards of all sorts, and other garbage, and then rain..
At the same time, not very good events for us should also occur beyond the Urals - the core of cold with T ok-50C from all Oymyakon and Verkhoyansk will descend to Lake Baikal. Lake Baikal and to the west, while SibAc will strengthen and expand and will sub* * * along the way of its air flows all this Oymyakon frozen right in our direction

In general, whatever it was - Spring is coming soon!

After January 20, the sun will come into effect, every 10 days after January 20, its height will increase by three degrees, and the duration of the day by 30 minutes!
So shto... winter is not in vain angry ))))

PS
Filter matyukov of course burns))) Here I was noticed for the word "scribe")) and now, thanks to this filter, some kind of horror has come out at all

This post was edited by Hierophis - 16.01.2012 13: 58

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18.01.2012 14:28, Hierophis

Well this is the 18th day

As you can see from the actual map-the fact is slightly different from the forecast, well, not surprisingly, after all, the forecast for 8 days, and a specific, but presumably the most possible, option is taken.

As a result, the expected (by whom as

) cyclone is located slightly to the north, approx. at 1000 km, and a little weaker, the expected depth was 945 HPa and 960 HPA came out, this is a big difference, all this is not in favor in the fight against winter

, there is also no southern cyclone that is on the old map, which should have been in the south of Italy-this is a plus. Approximate boundary of SibAC approximately acc. predicted - this is a minus, and we have all already felt this minus.

In general, the borders of SibAC are so strong, and the anticyclone itself is so unyielding (still, up to 7,000 km in length) that this cyclone will struggle to break through and squeeze through, squeezing the borders of the SBAC and destroying itself at the same time, will fall apart into fragments, reassemble into an orderly structure, but still break through close to SIBAC on Monday!!! On the map below, you can see a beautiful confrontation... which should end with the displacement of SibAC 2000 km to the east!!!

Heat will arrive in Ukraine from the 20th and will last in the north until the 26th, and maybe even longer, it will be seen later)

18.01.2012 14:35, Hierophis

This is the very confrontation, its apogee, Monday, January 23.
On the right you can see the Siberian anticyclone, with the letter H in the center, on the left - a cyclone, with the letter T centered almost over Ukraine.
It is very interesting to imagine what kind of power and great forces of nature are concentrated on the border of these two giant vortices!!!!!
As a result, this confrontation lasts for almost a day, after which SibAC sharply "bounces 2000-2500 km to the east by Tuesday evening, freeing the road, the cyclone also almost collapses, but "survives" and continues on the free road to the north-east!!! opening the way for your "fellow human beings".

Surface temperature at the time of the confrontation, which is shown on the map - in the southern sector of the cyclone, that is, over Ukraine, from +1 to +10C, over the SibAC possessions from-15C to-30C.

This post was edited by Hierophis - 18.01.2012 14: 39

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27.01.2012 21:57, Hierophis

Numerical predictive systems show, I must say, quite good accuracy. Trends that were noticed 7 days ago remain, and even increase.

The image shows the prev. calculation for February 2. In the picture above - also, only for the 20th day)

The total expected duration of poholadinium is approximately 10 days, taking into account the past two.
In the south of Ukraine, I do not remember this type of frost for my observations, there was a minimum of b-26C in 2006, but one day, and the cold season itself with extreme lows lasted approx. three days.
True, then there was still a big plus - a very large snow cover, but even in this case, the entomofauna, the avifauna was very badly affected.
This cold snap is aggravated by the fact that in addition to the simple dominance of a Siberian-type anticyclone with very warm air at altitude, which would quickly be replaced by warming up in good sun, massive and very extensive cold cores are coming to us from under the Altai Territory...

In the south of Ukraine, the current minimum values are not yet clear to me, there is not enough experience to adequately analyze forecasts in such a situation. I read somewhere that the weather forecasters suggest that the east will reach -35, but this is also OBS, it can be anything, as the process is very dynamic. In principle, it can be anything, it can be so that in the south of Ukraine there will be Cumin not lower than -20, even despite the fact that in the east it can be -30, and it can be so that-zo will be in the south somewhere.
There is a possibility of sea freezing.
If the temperature drops to-10C or lower over the sea, there will be quite a strong sea soaring in the north.

Now interseno of course, what consequences for our nature will bring such processes, since so far we have almost no snow cover... In places where there are norms. snow cover - nothing unusual for nature should happen.

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02.02.2012 0:35, Hierophis

HAHAHAHA, too, to me, the great Kyrgyz magician, and justifies himself as the last weather forecaster )))
There will be no winter, there will be no winter )))))))))))))))
And he talks like that, you can see that it's a shame!

That's why they had to look at the American long-term climate model and believe it for more than a month

That cat... which is contained in Kyrgyz.. ))) Biorobots ))))) Barack Obama

This is the takeaway

I believe this is the influence of the Chui Valley.. an abnormal location. There, goovryat, recently even trionyx found! )))))))))

PS
Plus a fresh invigorating forecast from the European progn. models for February 11-so as not to doubt-the sea will freeze, it will not freeze, whether there will be straight wings,or not..

-25 at an altitude of 850, this is up to -35 near the ground

This post was edited by Hierophis - 02.02.2012 00: 47